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khaledlharbi87

15-08-2016 06:17 PM

النشرة الاقتصادية الأسبوعية لسوق العملات

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التحليل مقدم من قبل المحلل العالمي في شركة Simone Bettenzana - NSFX

أغلق الدولار الأمريكي الأسبوع الماضي على انخفاض مقابل اغلب العملات في سوق العملات. وقد شهد الدولار بعض الضعف في بداية الأسبوع ولكن جاءت القراءة المخيبة للآمال عن مبيعات التجزئة الامريكية لتحدد مصير العملة الامريكية. فقد اصاب انفاق المستهلك حالة من الركود في شهر يوليوز و انخفض بنسبة -0.1% باستثناء مشتريات السيارات و البنزين. وانخفضت أسعار المنتجين بنسبة – 0.4% وهي مفاجئة كبيرة بالمقارنة مع توقعات الاقتصاديين بالارتفاع بنسبة 0.1%. وعلى الجانب الآخر، فقد زادت معدلات ثقة المستهلك وذلك وفقًا ل مؤشر ثقة المستهلك الأمريكي من جامعة ميتشجان ولكن لم تكن الزيادة بنفس مستوى التوقعات. وبينما تعرض الدولار الامريكي للانخفاض خلال الأسبوع الماضي إلا أننا نعتقد أنه سيتعافى بعد ذلك. من المتوقع أن تكون الزيادة الاخيرة في الاجور و الانخفاض في أسعار البنزين سببًا في دعم استهلاك المستهلك في شهر أغسطس. وفي نهاية يوم الجمعة، لم يكن هناك شيء أكثر تأثيرًا على اتجاه العملات أكثر من أسعار الفائدة وقد اتضح لنا الأسبوع الماضي أن تداول الدولار الامريكي كان عند مستويات مرتفعة مقابل عملات الأساسية بعد قرار خفض أسعار الفائدة من البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي. فقد كان التباطؤ الاقتصادي و السياسات النقدية الميسرة بالخارج سبب في منح العملة الأمريكية بريقًا في المقابل، وهذا الامر لن ينساه المستثمرون في هذا الاسبوع.
ومنذ ارتداد معدل نمو الوظائف في يونيو، يتحدث عدد من أعضاء البنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي عن احتمالية رفع سعر الفائدة هذا العام مع تأكيد “ويليامز” رئيس البنك الفيدرالي على ذلك في الاسبوع الماضي. وفي هذا الاسبوع سنكون في انتظار مؤشر أسعار المستهلك و بيانات السوق العقاري و تقارير الصناعات التحويلية. ومن المتوقع ان تكون الاحداث الاكثر أهمية و الاكثر تحريكًا للسوق للدولار الأمريكي هي التصريحات من رؤساء البنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي بما فيهم “لوكارت” و “بولارد” و “ويليامز” لأن المستثمرون سوف يستكرون في مراقبة أي إشارات بمزيد من الإلتزام في عام 2016 برفع سعر الفائدة. وكان هناك كمية هائلة من التذبذب في الدولار الأمريكي/ الين الياباني USD/JPY بسبب الحديث عن احتمالية حاجة البنك الياباني إلى المرونة. وقد دفع هذا الدولار الأمريكي/ الين الياباني USD/JPY إلى أدنى مستوى له عند 100.97 وبينما ارتفع هذا الزوج سريعًا في الأيام التالية إلا أنه لم يبتعد كثيرًا عن هذه المستويات. بالنسبة لليابان، سيكون التركيز الأساسي الآن موجه إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي والذي من المتوقع أن يأتي بقراءة أضعف من التوقعات. ونعتقد ان الاتجاه الهبوطي لزوج العملة الدولار الأمريكي/ الين الياباني USD/JPY سيكون محدودا عند أدنى مستوى كان قد سجله الأسبوع الماضي، ولا نزال نتطلع الى انخفاض هذا الزوج إلى 103.50.‎

أغلقت عملات السلع الثلاثة الأسبوعا لماضي عند مستويات قوية مقابل الدولار الأمريكي.وكانت القصة الأبرز هي إعلان السياسة النقدية من البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي. ارتفع الدولار النيوزلندي/ الدولار الأمريكي NZD/USD بحدة إلى أعلى مستوى له عند 0.7340 بعد قرار البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي بقطع سعر الفائدة ، حيث كان المستثمرون يأملون بقطع سعر الفائدة بمقدار 50 نقطة أساس بدلا من 25 نقطة أساس. وعندما استقرت الاجواء، أدرك المشاركون في السوق أن البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي لم يقطع سعر الفائدة إلى 2% فقط ، بل أنه قد تحدث أيضًا عن احتمالية قطع المزيد. ولم يكن “ويلير” عضو البنك النيوزلندي يرى ان هناك ضرورة لقطع سعر الفائدة بمقدار 50 نقطة أساس فقط وإنما أوضح أيضًا أن الاقتصاد سيكون في حاجة لقطع المزيد من سعر الفائدة. ولم يقل أنه “قد يكون” وإنما قال “سيكون”. وتشير توقعات البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي إلى احتمالية قطع الفائدة بمقدار 60 نقطة أساس، مما يعني أن قطع الفائدة بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس أخرى سيكون أمر محتمل بدرجة كبيرة هذا العام، خاصة إن لم نشهد انخفاض كبير في الدولار النيوزلندي/ الدولار الأمريكي NZD/USD. وبالنسبة إلى البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي، كان الهدف الاساسي وراء تسهيل السياسة النقدية هو دفع الدولار النيوزلندي NZD للأسفل وسوف يستمر في اتخاذ المزيد من الإجراءات لدفع العملة للاسفل سواء كانت هذه الإجراءات لفظية او مادية. ولم يمر الكثير من الوقت قبل أن يختبر الدولار النيوزلندي/ الدولار الأمريكي NZD/USD مستوى 71 سنت. وقد سار الدولار الاسترالي AUD على خُطَى الدولار النيوزلندي NZD، حيث حدث الارتفاع المفاجئ الذي شهدناه في الدولار النيوزلندي/ الدولار الأمريكي NZD/USD في الدولار الاسترالي/ الدولار النيوزلندي (AUD/NZD) أيضًا بعد قرار البنك الاحتياطي النيوزلندي. لم تصدر أي اخبار محركة للسوق من استراليا خلال الأسبوعا لماضي، ولكننا علمنا أن ثقة المستهلك قد تحسنت وان ثقة رجال الأعمال قد انخفضت. ومن ناحية أخرى، كانت البيانات الاقتصادية من الصين ضعيفة حيث تباطأ معدل نمو مبيعات التجزئة و الإنتاج الصناعي. وبينما ارتفع الميزان التجاري، انخفض معدل الواردات وكانت هذه أخبار سيئة بالنسبة لاستراليا. وخلال هذا الأسبوع ستكون هناك أحداث هامة بالنسبة لاستراليا و نيوزلندا. فسوف يتم الغعلان عن محضر اجتماع البنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي (RBA) بالإضافة إلى تقارير التوظيف من استراليا و نيوزلندا.

وعلى عكس الدولار النيوزلندي NZD و الدولار الاسترالي AUD، زادت قوة الدولار الكندي CAD بشكل ثابت خلال الأسبوع الماضي، حيث انخفض الدولار الأمريكي/ الدولار الكندي USD/CAD إلى أدنى مستوياته خلال 3 أسابيع. وبالنسبة إلى بعض المستثمرين قد تكون هذه الحركة مفاجئة بعد تقارير التوظيف و الميزان التجاري السيئة ولكن كان النفط هو المحرك الأساسي لهذا الارتفاع. فقد ارتفعت أسعار النفط بما يزيد عن 4% بسبب أحاديث حول احتمالية اتخاذ إجراء ما لاستقرار أسعار النفط، الأمر الذي أدى إلى ارتفاع هذه السلعة على الرغم من احتمالية عدم حدوث ذلك حتى الاجتماع غير الرسمي الذي سينعقد في الشهر القادم. ومن غير المحتمل ان يكون هناك تغيير حقيقي في الانتاج ولكن خلال اسبوع هادئ ، كان ذلك كافيا لدفع الدولار الأمريكي/ الدولار الكندي USD/CAD بحدة للاسفل. ومن المتوقع ان يستمر التجار في مراقبة أسعار النفط خلال هذا الاسبوع ولكن ستكون مبيعات التجزئة و أسعار المستهلك من كندا مهمة للغاية.

كان الاسترليني هو العملة الوحيدة التي اغلقت الاسبوع الماضي على انخفاض مقابل العملة الأمريكية. فقد كانت البيانات الاقتصادية البريطانية أضعف من التوقعات حيث انخفض انتاج الصناعات التحويلية وارتفع العجز في الميزان التجاري. كما جاء تقييم الناتج المحلي الإجمالي من مؤسسة NIESR لشهر يوليو بقراءة ضعيفة ولكن كان المحرك الأساسي وراء ضعف الباوند البريطاني/ الدولار الأمريكي GBP/USD هو وجهات نظر عضو لجنة السياسة النقدية “مكافرتي” و تقرير أسعار المنازل من RICS. ففي كتابته في التايمز، قال السيد “مكافرتي” أنه إن تحولت البيانات الاقتصادية البريطانية للأسفل، فقد يقرر البنك المركزي قطع سعر الفائدة أكثر لتصل إلى المستوى الصفري وزيادة التسهيل الكمي في الوقت ذاته. ويعتبر السيد “مكافرتي” من أحد الأعضاء الأكثر ميلا إلى تضييق السياسة النقدية في اللجنة وكان أحد أربع المصوتين ضد رفع هدف التسهيل الكمي في آخر اجتماع عقده البنك البريطاني. وبالتالي فإن تصريحاته تحمل قدرًا أكبر من الأهمية في السوق. ووفقا لتقرير RICS البريطاني، فقد ارتفعت اسعار المنازل بأبطأ معدل لها خلال ثلاث اعوام في يوليو و انخفضت المبيعات الجديدة، مما يدل على ان السوق العقاري يتأثر ب خروج بريطانيا من الإتحاد الأوروبي (Brexit) ، وفي ظل القروض العقارية الكبيرة التي يحصل عليها المستهلك في بريطانيا، فإن الانخفاض الحاج في قيمة الاصول قد يكون لها تأثير على إنفاق المستهلك بعد ذلك. وفي الاسبوع الحالي قد يكون الاسبوع مكتظ بالبيانات البريطانية حيث من المقرر الاعلان عن كلا من مؤشر أسعار المستهلك و مبيعات التجزئة و تقرير التوظيف . وقد تأتي هذه البيانات بنتائج اضعف من التوقعات حيث بدأ الاقتصاد يشعر بعقبات خروج بريطانيا من الإتحاد الأوروبي (Brexit). يقع الدعم لزوج العملة الباوند البريطاني/ الدولار الأمريكي GBP/USD عند ادنى مستوى لشهر يوليو بالقرب من 1.2800 وتقع المقاومة قصيرة الاجل عند 1.3150.‎

وأخيرًا كان الأسبوع الماضي هادئ بالنسبة لليورو والذي ظل محصورًا بين المتوسط المتحرك (SMA) لـ 100 يوم و 200 يوم عند 1.1075 و 1.1250. وجاءت بيانات الإنتاج الصناعي الألماني و الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للربع الثاني بنتائج أعلى من التوقعات، مما ساعد اليورو على الامتداد في ارتفاعاته يوم الجمعة. وبالطبع ساعده على ذلك تقرير مبيعات التجزئة من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية. ولكننا نعتقد ان هذا الارتفاع قد تتوقف بالقرب من 1.1250 بسبب مشاكل القطاع المصرفي في منطقة اليورو. وفي الأسبوع الحالي سيتم الاعلان عن مؤشر ZEW الألماني و محضر اجتماع البنك المركزي الأوروبي (ECB) و الحساب الجاري و مؤشر أسعار المستهلك (CPI) و الميزان التجاري.

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]سجل الى حساب تجريبي واحصل على مواد تعلمية مجانا لاسرار سوق الفوركس‎

الساعة الآن 05:09 PM.

a.d - i.s.s.w